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January 12, 2007
Want to be a 21st century intellectual? Learn about Bayes!
Futurist George Dvorsky included Bayesianism into the list of Must-know terms for the 21st Century intellectual:
Bayesian Rationality: Bayesian rationality is a probabilistic approach to reasoning. Bayesian rationalists describe probability as the degree to which a person should believe a proposition. They also apply Bayes' theorem when inferring or updating their degree of belief when given new information. Some scientists and epistemologists hope to replace the Popperian view of proof with a Bayesian view.
I agree (of course). Popperian falsification is just a special case of the Bayesian view: if the likelihood P(data|model) is zero (indicating that the data is impossible given the model), P(model|data) is zero, regardless of the prior. But the Bayesian approach offers some sort of a weighted preference among all the models that haven't been refuted yet, balancing the Ockhamist preference for simplicity through the prior and the desire for accuracy through the likelihood.
Posted by Aleks at January 12, 2007 7:32 PM
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Comments
Oh, joy!
Does this mean you'll consider more introductory posts? -- Not everyone who subscribed here took your classes, you know! :-)
Maybe you should do a "beginner's guide", etc.
Posted by: Gabriel M. at January 13, 2007 6:09 AM.
Posted by: Aleks ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](../assets/877f66dc64771560.gif)
at January 13, 2007 7:58 PM.
Recommended readng on Bayes Rationality and Bayes applications for someone conversant in quatitative methods but not Bayes?
Thank you..Frank
Posted by: Frank de Libero at January 15, 2007 10:30 PM.
Frank, I like this introduction by Yudkowsky.
Posted by: Aleks at January 18, 2007 11:23 AM.
Posted by: Frank de Libero at January 21, 2007 10:36 PM.
Sorry for coming in late, but , but, this is all nice, but it would have been nicer if this futurologists crystal ball wasn´t so cloudy! \\
"Post-scarcity economics", anybody? As if there will not always be new "needs" which can be created by creative marketing? The latest on the must-have list
is space tourism: look at http://www.physorg.com/news89030325.html
The swedes will offer 20 minutes in space "sub-orbital" for only 200000$ from as early as
2010.
¿Will this also be included in "post-scarcity"?
Kjetil
Posted by: kjetil halvorsen at February 2, 2007 7:29 PM.